ANALYSE THIS: PSG more likely to progress than historic results suggest

FOOTBALL – The Champions League first legs have all been played and the favourites to progress generally look in good shape to do so. There are two common ways to assess what the likelihood of going through actually is – the first uses historical results and calculates the frequency with which teams recording a particular result went through. The second uses a statistical model based on team ratings to assess the chances of progress. The two methods give broadly the same chance for each of the four ties won by the away team but if a match is drawn or results in a narrow home win, the chances from the two methods begin to diverge.

What are “Scoring Opportunities”?

FOOTBALL – The Guardian’s analysis of Leicester City’s surprise season included a reference to scoring opportunities, one of the numerous variables that we at Infostrada Sports collect in our live coverage of football matches around the world. As explained in the article, this is a measure which counts major chances whether they result in a shot or not. Calculating the difference between scoring opportunities for and against produces a measure which is highly correlated with the league table standings. Below are some examples of goal attempts which would be classified as scoring opportunities.

ANALYSE THIS: Premier League rich but performs below par

FOOTBALL – The Deloitte Money League has been released and unsurprisingly, the Euro Club Index ranking, which rates clubs based on performance, is highly correlated with this annual ranking of wealth. Four of the top-five clubs on the Deloitte list are also in the Euro Club Index top-10. Manchester United are the big exception at third in the Money League but ranked only 13^th by the Euro Club Index. Another Premier League club, Liverpool, are the ninth richest in the world but are currently only just hanging onto a place in the Euro Club Index top-25. All nine Premier League clubs in Deloitte’s top-20 richest are ranked lower by the Euro Club Index.

RECORD: Spain to serve up five-star CL campaign

FOOTBALL – Valencia CF reached the main stage of the Champions League and made Spain the first country ever to be represented by five teams in one CL season. In Thursday’s draw pots Valencia will be joined by fellow Spanish sides FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid and Sevilla FC.

RECORD: Barça complete sixth domestic double

FOOTBALL –  FC Barcelona defeated Athletic Club in the final of the Copa del Rey on Saturday. After having won La Liga, this domestic double is the sixth in the club’s history.  Before today, Barça had shared the mark of five with Athletic Club, their opponents in the final. FC Barcelona move two doubles clear of Real Madrid, who have done the double on four occasions.

IN THE NEWS: Sevilla 4th Spanish team in 2015/2016 CL

FOOTBALL – With Sevilla FC winning the Europa League final, they have automatically qualified for the 2015/2016 Champions League group stage, making it the fourth Spanish side among the 22 teams already qualified for next season’s CL main tournament.

THE WAVE: Juventus – Real Madrid

FOOTBALL – Juventus beat Real Madrid 2-1 at home to secure their 50th home win in the Champions League. Juve (7 on target) and Real (3 on target) both had 12 shots each this match and our wave shows how evenly matched both teams were in this semifinal. The score in the end, however, was in favor of the Italians.

THE WAVE: Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid

FOOTBALL – For the first time in almost 10 years both teams failed to score in the Madrid derby. Real Madrid were dominant until the last 15 minutes of the match where Atleti were on top. Both efforts were not successful and for the first time since their La Liga clash in May 2005, the match ended in a goalless draw.

ANALYSE THIS: A Statistical Breakdown Of El Clásico (update)

FOOTBALL – On Sunday 22 March Real Madrid and FC Barcelona will go head-to-head in the 230th edition of El Clásico. In the week before the last clash between these archrivals (25 October) we posted a statistical analysis discussing several numbers on this match. We have updated this analysis with the performances of the teams in current season and added a brand new piece of analysis at the end.

THE WAVE: Real Madrid v Schalke 04

FOOTBALL – Schalke 04 defeated Real Madrid 4-3 in Bernabeu in the Champions League on Tuesday. Schalke came one goal shy of advancing to the quarterfinals. The wave shows a slow start by both teams, but after Schalke’s opener, the match took off with both teams attacking much.