FOOTBALL – According to the Euro Club Index the all-Spanish tie between Villarreal CF and titleholders Sevilla FC was the highest profile matchup that resulted from today’s Europa League Last 16 draw. Of the 16 teams still in contention, Sevilla is the highest ranked (14th) team in the Euro Club Index. The index claims that Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk v Ajax is the lowest profile tie on offer.
Category Archives for Euro Club Index
EURO CLUB INDEX: Last eight in CL unusually strong
FOOTBALL – Since 2008, when the Euro Club Index began ranking all of Europe’s top flight sides, the average strength of the Champions League quarterfinalists has never been even remotely as high as this year. Where the average strength will move between a typical bandwidth of 3,400-3,550 ranking points, this year it is a whopping 3,856. For the first time all eight group winners from the group stage have advanced to the quarterfinals and all teams that make up the last eight are ranked among the top 11 in the Euro Club Index.
EURO CLUB INDEX: Bayern favourites, but by how much?
FOOTBALL – Bayern Munich go into Saturday’s Champions League final as favourites but how big a favourite the club is depends on how we assess their supposed home advantage. Assuming that Bayern Munich enjoy a full home advantage, they have a 50% chance of winning in 90 minutes and a 63% chance of becoming Champions League winners this season. Chelsea’s chances are 24% for a 90 minute victory and 37% to win the Champions League.
What if we disregard home advantage altogether?
With the two clubs ranked numbers five and six in the Euro Club Index, completely disregarding home advantage gives a somewhat different picture providing little discernible difference between the clubs. On that basis Bayern have a 52% chance of victory and Chelsea 48% with the 90 minute probabilities standing at 38% and 35% respectively.
Half a dozen home finals
There are plenty of analyses out there regarding what the actual home advantage is but the biggest problem with all of them is lack of data. For example, there have been only six previous European finals in which a team has played in its own stadium.
The best of the best?
One thing is for sure though. Whoever lifts the Champions League trophy on Saturday evening is not the best team in Europe. Due to the vagaries of knockout football, four clubs currently ranked above these two were eliminated on the way to this stage. Coincidentally, Bayern’s semi-final victims, Real Madrid, overtook FC Barcelona last weekend to become the Euro Club Index’s new number one team.
EURO CLUB INDEX: Chance of Clásico final down to 43%
FOOTBALL – Last week’s Champions League semi-final first legs have unsurprisingly had a major effect on the chances of the Euro Club Index top two clubs of reaching this year’s Champions League final. The chance of May’s final being between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid has now reduced to 43%.
Both clubs are still favourites in their semi-final ties to reach the final in Munich on May 19 but their chances have reduced to 68.5% (Real Madrid) and 62.3% (Barcelona). There is still a high chance (77.2%) that one of the two Spanish clubs will end this season with the Champions League trophy in their cabinet but this is a little less than the 90+% chance there was before the first legs.
Due to the current standings in the two ties, ECI second ranked Real Madrid are now the favourites to win the Champions League (40.6%). FC Barcelona’s chance is 36.6%, Chelsea have a 12.2% chance. Bayern München have a 10.8% chance of lifting the trophy in their own stadium.
The Euro Club Index ranks all European clubs, calculates match odds and also odds of teams winning league championships. Find it on Twitter @EuroClubIndex
EURO CLUB INDEX: Barça must win to level title race
FOOTBALL – The most crucial match of the season takes place in the Camp Nou on Saturday evening with the Euro Club Index top two clubs clashing in El Clásico. According to the match odds, FC Barcelona have a 54% chance of victory on Saturday, Real Madrid 22% and there is 24% chance of a draw. If Barcelona win, the race to the La Liga title will be wide open.
Victory for FC Barcelona will improve their odds of winning La Liga from 30% to 50% according to the Euro Club Index. A draw will almost give Real Madrid the title, improving their chances to 85% from the current 70%. A Real Madrid victory will mean that it is pretty much done and dusted with Real 99% sure of the title.
EURO CLUB INDEX: United take slight knock in title race
FOOTBALL – Manchester United’s defeat at Wigan Athletic coupled with Manchester City’s victory against West Bromwich Albion in the midweek matches have put a slight dent in United’s chances of winning the Premier League this season. Their odds on the Euro Club Index have reduced to 92.6% from the table we published on Monday with City’s rising to 7.4%.
Can dark horse Newcastle United keep this up?
In the race for the other Champions League places for next season, Newcastle United seem to have made great strides by moving level with fourth placed Tottenham Hotspur. However, with Newcastle rated lower on the Euro Club Index than their three rivals for the Champions League, and with a tricky last five matches they are currently rated only a 2% chance to finish in the top four. This will change drastically of course if Newcastle manage to spring a surprise at Chelsea or in their home fixture against title chasing Manchester City.
Drop zone developments
At the bottom, things are becoming much clearer with Wolverhampton Wanderers effectively already relegated (0.1% chance of survival) with QPR and Blackburn Rovers currently the favourites to join them. Blackburn have a 69% chance of relegation and QPR 57%. The only other realistic possibilities are Bolton Wanderers (42%) and Wigan Athletic (32%).
Updated Euro Club Index
Our predictions for the final league tables of a number of leagues can be found on the League Odds page and are updated every Monday. You can find the Euro Club Index on Twitter @EuroClubIndex
EURO CLUB INDEX: League title is United’s to lose
The Euro Club Index (http://www.euroclubindex.com) gives Manchester United a 90% chance of winning this season’s Premier League title. It is the first time that a Premier League team’s chance has risen above the 90% mark this season after United’s biggest rivals Manchester City slipped up at the weekend by drawing at home to Sunderland.
Manchester United have been the Euro Club Index’s favourites for the Premier League title for almost the whole season. Manchester City became slight favourites for a few weeks in January, and again in February, but the gap between the two has only increased over the last five weeks and now United’s chance is a shade over the 90% mark.
City are, of course big favourites to finish second (90% chance) ahead of the battle for third, fourth and fifth. The battle for third and fourth is assessed as a near 50-50 split between Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur with the Gunners holding the edge currently. Chelsea also have a slight chance of finishing fourth but are more likely to end the season outside the Champions League places.
Down at the bottom, Wolverhampton Wanderers are all but down with only a 0.5% chance of staying up. Wigan Athletic (72% chance of relegation) and QPR (84%) are currently tipped to join them in next season’s Championship but Blackburn Rovers (29%) and Bolton Wanderers (15%) are not yet out of it.
You can follow all of the latest developments from the Euro Club Index on Twitter: @euroclubindex and at the website http://www.euroclubindex.com which contains a ranking of all top flight clubs in Europe (updated daily), odds on every top flight match and predictions for the final standings in Europe’s biggest competitions. It is looked after by our Head of Analysis Simon Gleave who also wrote this article.
EURO CLUB INDEX: Premier League best in Europe?
FOOTBALL – Just recently, a debate arose on Twitter (@InfostradaLive) what Europe’s strongest league is. One of our followers took the Euro Club Index to see what the numbers say. Click below to read extensive analysis. Is it the Premier League? Click ‘Read more’ to find out.
Premier League
The Premier League is widely considered the best league in the world. It is shown in more countries than any other league in the world and it is easy to see why; some of the world’s best players ply their trade in the UK and the league’s teams consistently perform well in Europe. The popularity of the Premier League overshadows its predictability however. While it is considered a competitive league with exciting matches, the same team – Manchester United – has won four of the last five championships. They are currently level on points with rivals and table leaders Manchester City. Chelsea, the only other champions in the last five years have with United made up the top two for four of those years. There may be a lot of strong teams in England but the league is imbalanced. Euro Club Index’s league odds show that only two teams have a realistic chance of the title again this year with the Manchester sides 12 points ahead of Arsenal in third. Until 2009 even the top four teams could be predicted at the beginning of the season. Just seven different teams have finished in the top five in the last five years. Exciting, yes. Predictable? Definitely.
La Liga
Spanish football’s top flight is the second entity in the best-league-in-the-world debate. It has the two best teams in the world in FC Barcelona and Real Madrid, who have monopolised La Liga which has become an annual duel between the two giants. Almost a carbon-copy of recent events in England, Barca have won four of the last five championships and Real just one in 2008. Villarreal have been the only side to break their stranglehold and capitalise on an off-season for Barcelona in that same season by finishing second. This season, Real have a six-point lead over Barcelona with just nine games to go. Possibly more interesting at this moment in time is the neck-and-neck race between Messi and Ronaldo for this year’s Golden Boot. Unsurprisingly, the ECI shows that only these two teams have a realistic chance of winning the title. Their dominance is such that even the Champions League odds, show Barca at 48.6% and Madrid at 43.2%. Barcelona have also won two of the last five Champions Leagues. Like the Premier League only seven different sides have occupied the final top five in the last five seasons.
Bundesliga
In the last five Bundesliga seasons there have been four different champions. In addition, 12 different teams have finished in the top five positions in the last five years. The evidence shows that the German league is one of the more unpredictable European leagues. The ECI odds for this year have four clubs in with a chance of becoming champions; albeit miniscule probability for Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach. Dortmund, the current champions, also lead the current table from Bayern München who have won two of the last five Bundesliga championships. In 2009 a title free-for-all ended with only 8 points separated first and fifth in the final league table. Interestingly, Wolfsburg have only finished in the top five twice, fifth in 2008 and astonishingly as champions in 2009.
Serie A
Like in England and Spain, Italy’s Serie A has two different champions in the last five years, the Milan clubs. Inter claimed four of those titles and finished second in the other. AC on the other hand have managed to finish 4th, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, and as champions last season. A full house! Roma have also finished second in three of the last five years. The Italian top flight has seen eleven different teams in the last five top 5’s yet it is evidently simple to predict the eventual winners. Corruption and scandal has seen Serie A fall behind in terms of the best league and has allowed for new teams to break through in recent years with giants Fiorentina and Juventus being relegated for their part. This season though Juve are unbeaten yet somehow find themselves sitting four points behind AC Milan in second place. According to ECI’s odds Milan are the biggest favourites in any of the top European leagues.
Ligue 1
What was the most predictable league in Europe after Lyon’s seven straight championships between 2001-2008 has become one of the most unpredictable after four different champions in the last five years. Coming off the back of that streak Lyon, Bordeaux, Marseille and Lille have been the last four winners among an incredible 13 clubs to have finished in the top five in that time. Currently at the top of the table are Paris Saint-Germain, who lead by two points from Montpellier. Neither have won the league in the last five years. In 2010 an exciting race for the title ended with only nine points separating the top five teams.
Eredivisie
After years of almost complete dominance over the Dutch championship from Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord, going back as far as the 1960’s, the last four years have seen four different champions. Last season, Ajax ended their four-year wait to avenge finishing second to PSV by one goal back in 2007, when PSV scored five on the final day and table leaders AZ faltering at the last hurdle. A close fight ended with four points separating the top three; Ajax two points ahead of Twente who were also two ahead of PSV. In a completely open chase this year there are only five points between first and sixth. ECI’s odds reflect this – all of the top four clubs have very good chance of winning the championship while there are realistic chances for Feyenoord and Heerenveen in 5th and 6th respectively. A crazy season has even seen Utrecht, languishing back in ninth position, come back from 3-2 down at half-time to beat current leaders Ajax 6-4. While recent seasons in the Netherland have been exciting, it is clear that there is still an elite group of clubs as only eight different teams have finished in the top five in the last five years.
Based on this analysis, the Premier League is the best league in Europe, slightly ahead of Spain. Although those who dislike two-horse races may still disagree.
Analysis made by Nathan Flint (find him on Twitter @Grapetastic24) using data supplied by Euro Club Index (@euroclubindex on Twitter and www.euroclubindex.com). New odds and rankings to appear today on www.euroclubindex.com. This is already Nathan’s third piece for this website. We very much enjoy his work. Think you can share something nice with us? Get in touch with us.
EURO CLUB INDEX: Defeat makes Benfica favourites
FOOTBALL – Benfica’s 3-2 defeat at Zenit St. Petersburg has made them favourites to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals. Our Euro Club Index estimates their chance of progress to the last eight at 50.5%.
Bayer Leverkusen have only a 0.3% chance of overturning a 3-1 deficit in Barcelona and Arsenal’s chances of coming back from 4-0 down to knock out AC Milan are only slightly better. Olympique Lyon’s 1-0 first leg victory over APOEL gives the French team more than 80% chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
Next week’s fixtures should prove even more evenly matched with only one – Real Madrid v CSKA – involving a team with more than 90% chance of reaching the last eight.
EURO CLUB INDEX: Dortmund’s odds to win title soar
FOOTBALL – Borussia Dortmund’s odds to retain their Bundesliga title have soared to nearly 85%, following their win against Mainz last weekend, whilst seeing rivals Bayern München stumble at Leverkusen. Just before Christmas, their odds were less than 15%. Click here for the progression.
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