ANALYSE THIS: PSG more likely to progress than historic results suggest

FOOTBALL – The Champions League first legs have all been played and the favourites to progress generally look in good shape to do so. There are two common ways to assess what the likelihood of going through actually is – the first uses historical results and calculates the frequency with which teams recording a particular result went through. The second uses a statistical model based on team ratings to assess the chances of progress. The two methods give broadly the same chance for each of the four ties won by the away team but if a match is drawn or results in a narrow home win, the chances from the two methods begin to diverge. Continue reading

What are “Scoring Opportunities”?

FOOTBALL – The Guardian’s analysis of Leicester City’s surprise season included a reference to scoring opportunities, one of the numerous variables that we at Infostrada Sports collect in our live coverage of football matches around the world. As explained in the article, this is a measure which counts major chances whether they result in a shot or not. Calculating the difference between scoring opportunities for and against produces a measure which is highly correlated with the league table standings. Below are some examples of goal attempts which would be classified as scoring opportunities.
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THE WAVE: Bayern München – FC Barcelona

FOOTBALL: As you can see in the Wave, Bayern München flew out of the gates and scored directly. After that first goal, Barcelona took over until the closing minutes of the first half. In the second half, Barcelona looked comfortable with Bayern having the initiative  The Spanish side regained the momentum in the very last minutes, but overall Bayern were more dominant.

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ANALYSE THIS: CL draw system increases Group of Death chance

FOOTBALL – The Champions League draw pots for this evening are based on the UEFA coefficients for clubs at the end of last season. Those coefficients are based on a five year performance in European competition. In general, this system works reasonably well for teams which always participate in the Champions League or Europa League. The top three are Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich for example. The problem comes with clubs who have not always been present in the previous five years. Using the Euro Club Index as an alternative, we can identify teams who have been misclassified in this year’s draw.

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Luis Enrique new Barcelona coach

FOOTBALL – FC Barcelona have appointed Luis Enrique as their new manager. Enrique played for the Catalan team from 1996 – 2004, amassing two La Liga titles (1998, 1999), two Copa del Rey’s (1997, 1998), one Supercopa de España (1996), the UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup (1997) and the UEFA Super Cup (1997).

He scored a total of six goals in El Clásico (five for Barcelona and one for Real Madrid) and is one of only four players to have ever scored for both teams in El Clásico, together with Luis Figo, Ronaldo (BRA) and Josep Samitier (excluding own goals). 

REVIEW: Xavi equals Raul on most wins in CL

FOOTBALL – Xavi captained Barcelona to 1-0 away win at Celtic to record his 79th win in the CL, equalling Raul’s record for most wins.

> Xavi reached 79 wins in his 133rd CL match. He can surpass Raul in the next round against AC Milan.

> Barcelona claimed their 39th away win the CL, equal most with Man United, who are playing away at Shakhtar on Wednesday.

> Milan’s Mario Balotelli scored a 94’ equaliser against Ajax (1-1). It was the 5th time in a row for Balotelli that he scored the 2nd goal of the match.

> Chelsea welcomed an own goal for the 7th time in the CL. Only Real (11) and Bayern (8) enjoyed more own goals from opponents.

> Atletico Madrid came from behind to win at Porto for the 2nd time in their CL history. They also won at Dortmund (2-1 away) after trailing by a goal in 1996.

REVIEW: Barça equal 70 year old La Liga record

FOOTBALL – FC Barcelona have equalled their own La Liga record by scoring in their 36th consecutive league match. Barça previously set this streak between 1942 and 1944 and can break it in their next match away against Málaga CF, the team which has conceded fewest goals in La Liga this season.

Lionel Messi scored his first goal of 2013 after netting a record 91 in 2012. He equalled a personal record by scoring in eight Liga matches in a row (March-April 2012).