FOOTBALL – Thirty-five years ago Aston Villa famously, and surprisingly, won the league title with just 14 players. Three years earlier, Nottingham Forest won the league immediately after promotion using just 16 players. Arsenal’s 1989 title win, their first for 18 years, was achieved with just 17 starters. This season, Leicester City have been the great surprises of the Premier League and have also followed a similar pattern in their selections. In the first 22 matches of the season, Leicester manager Claudio Ranieri has picked just 17 players in his starting line-ups and the club could still equal the Premier League era record for fewest starting players in a season.
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ANALYSE THIS: Sixty-two days, seventeen matches
FOOTBALL – 61 days ago – today is day 62 – Tottenham Hotspur lined up in Turkey to play their final Europa League group match against Besiktas which they went on to lose 1-0. Two days earlier, Liverpool drew 1-1 with FC Basel in what was their final Champions League match of the season. This evening, the two clubs play each other and for both, it will be their 17th match of the last nine weeks, the most played by any European club over that period.
Euro Club Index: Chelsea would win title in 2 seasons out of every 3 from here
With 17 matches remaining in this season’s Premier League, the race to the title currently involves just two teams, one of which has around twice the chance of the other of ending the season as 2014/2015 Premier League champions. Five more clubs have a realistic chance of a top-4 spot whilst eight teams are currently involved in the relegation battle. This leaves just five – West Ham, Swansea City, Stoke City, Newcastle United and Everton – without much left to play for.
ANALYSE THIS: Euro Club Index – PSG/Arsenal switch only top-10 change
FOOTBALL – Paris Saint-Germain have swapped places with Arsenal in the Euro Club Index over the last week, moving into ninth position with Arsenal dropping to 10th. AC Milan are back in the top-25 for the first time since February, replacing Athletic Bilbao.
REVIEW: Newcastle lose club record six consecutive PL matches
FOOTBALL – Arsenal defeated Newcastle 3-0 in the Premier League today. It was the sixth successive PL defeat for Newcastle. Newcastle had never lost six successive PL matches before. The last time they lost six in a row in the top flight was 27 years ago, between December 1986 and January 1987.
REVIEW: Everton remain unbeaten in PL
FOOTBALL – Everton beat Newcastle 3-2 and are the only unbeaten team in this season’s PL, yet they have a point less than at this stage last season.
Tim Howard became the 2nd goalie to assist this PL season after Brad Guzan. They are both from USA and it was Howard’s first assist since Nov 2007 in Everton’s 7-1 win v Sunderland.
It is 10 years since Everton scored 3 goals faster than today: 3-0 lead after 35 minutes v Fulham in Aug 2003. They also scored 3 in 37 minutes versus Southampton last year.
REVIEW: Lampard reaches 10+ goals in 10th season
> Lampard has scored at least 10 goals for Chelsea in every PL season since 2003/2004.
> Alan Shearer scored 10+ goals in 11 seasons for Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United between: 1992/93 -1996/97 and between 1998/99 – 2005/06.
> Andy Cole netted at least 10 goals in nine different Premier League seasons between 1993/94 and 2003/04.
ANALYSE THIS: The Premier League battles laid bare
FOOTBALL – As a companion piece to the “Race to 38/68/87” piece which blogger James Grayson published on the Premier League yesterday, we have looked at the current Euro Club Index assessment of the competition.
The title race
As we touched on in the more extensive piece on the title race published yesterday, Manchester United have around a 93% chance of becoming this season’s champions, Manchester City have about a 6% chance and Chelsea a 0.6% chance. Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Everton all have a non-zero chance of ending the season as champions although the latter pair’s probability is so small that it has been rounded down to 0 in the table following later in this article. The remaining 14 Premier League clubs have no chance of becoming the 2012/2013 champions of England.
The latest Euro Club Index projection suggest that Manchester United will get 89 points this season but the current forecast suggests that they could still win the title with significantly fewer points than this.
The battle to get into the Champions League
Manchester United are certain of a top four place and qualification for next season’s Champions League but there are eight other clubs who still have a chance of ending the season in the Premier League’s top four according to the Euro Club Index forecast.
Manchester City are all but in next season’s Champions League with only a 1.7% chance of them not making it at present. Chelsea have an 80.7% chance of joining the two Manchester clubs in the top four at the end of the season but it is the battle for fourth position that is most fascinating.
Tottenham Hotspur are marginal favourites to take that fourth place with a 43.2% chance of ending the 2012/2013 season by qualifying for the Champions League. However, their North London rivals Arsenal are only just behind with a 40% chance so it should be nip and tuck between these two over the next few months.
Everton are the other club with a reasonable shot at a Champions League place and would be expected to claim that place about once in every four seasons from their current position given their playing strength and remaining schedule. Liverpool, West Bromwich Albion and Stoke City cannot be completely ruled out of a top four position but their chances are somewhat more remote.
Currently, the Euro Club Index projection assesses that 67 points will be enough to make the top four. We will revisit this as the season progresses to see whether it changes.
The battle to avoid relegation
Despite their recent upturn in form and win at Stamford Bridge, Queens Park Rangers are still the favourites for relegation with the Euro Club Index and would be expected to finish bottom of the table in more than one out of every two seasons given their current record. Their chance of relegation is currently 93%, the same as Manchester United’s chance of winning the title.
Two of last season’s promoted clubs, Reading and Southampton, are the next most likely teams to go down with the Euro Club Index’s current projection giving them 78.7% and 55.3% chance of relegation respectively. There are, however, seven other clubs who are not yet safe as illustrated in the table above.
The Euro Club Index predicts Wigan to get 37 points at the moment and therefore the race to escape relegation has that total as a benchmark with 17 matches remaining.
Finally, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed that there is one club not mentioned in either the battle for the top four or as part of the relegation picture. That club is Swansea City but the Swans do, of course, have a shot at the Europa League. We will look at that race when it becomes clearer whether one of the Europa League places will go to the League Cup winners or not. Swansea can, of course, book a place in next season’s Europa League via that competition as they already have one foot in the final after their 2-0 win at Chelsea earlier this week.
REVIEW: Manchester United secure 6th come from behind PL victory this season
FOOTBALL – Manchester United came back from behind to beat Queens Park Rangers 3-1, on Saturday. United secured their sixth come from behind PL victory this season – equalling their most in a single PL season (set in 1999-00).
> The most ever by a PL club in a single season was 10 – set by Newcastle United in 2001-2002.
> With rivals Manchester City having four comeback wins this season, they have a combined 10 wins from behind this season – the most ever in the PL era for both clubs combined.
> Manchester United’s three PL goals came within 8 minutes – their fastest run of three goals in the division since a six-minute streak in the 8-2 win against Arsenal in August 2011.
REVIEW: Newcastle’s Cissé in elite PL goalscoring list
FOOTBALL – Since joining Newcastle United in January, Papiss Cissé has made a real impact on Tyneside by scoring seven goals in his first seven Premier League appearances for the club. However, his current goalscoring average of one goal per match is not unique. Two other players will go down in history with the same goalscoring average. Click Read More to find out who they are.
Aiden Newhouse came on as a substitute for Wimbledon vs Aston Villa on October 3, 1992 to score his team’s first goal in a 3-2 defeat. It would remain his only appearance for the club in the PL era.
Gary Bull, cousin of former England international Steve Bull, scored once in his only PL appearance for Nottingham Forest in the 1994/95 season. He scored the only goal of the home match vs Crystal Palace on January 2, 1995.
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