FOOTBALL – Thirty-five years ago Aston Villa famously, and surprisingly, won the league title with just 14 players. Three years earlier, Nottingham Forest won the league immediately after promotion using just 16 players. Arsenal’s 1989 title win, their first for 18 years, was achieved with just 17 starters. This season, Leicester City have been the great surprises of the Premier League and have also followed a similar pattern in their selections. In the first 22 matches of the season, Leicester manager Claudio Ranieri has picked just 17 players in his starting line-ups and the club could still equal the Premier League era record for fewest starting players in a season.
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REVIEW: Aston Villa to face Arsenal in their 11th FA Cup Final
FOOTBALL – Aston Villa joined Arsenal in this year’s FA Cup Final. It is the first time these two teams meet in the final of the tournament. Check out 5 facts here. Continue reading
Villa ranked last since Lambert signed new contract
FOOTBALL – Aston Villa lost 2-0 at Hull City on Tuesday evening and set a new PL record for the fewest goals after 25 matches of a season (12 goals). Only Leicester City (11 in 1977/78) scored fewer after 25 matches of a top flight campaign.
ANALYSE THIS: Sixty-two days, seventeen matches
FOOTBALL – 61 days ago – today is day 62 – Tottenham Hotspur lined up in Turkey to play their final Europa League group match against Besiktas which they went on to lose 1-0. Two days earlier, Liverpool drew 1-1 with FC Basel in what was their final Champions League match of the season. This evening, the two clubs play each other and for both, it will be their 17th match of the last nine weeks, the most played by any European club over that period.
Euro Club Index: Chelsea would win title in 2 seasons out of every 3 from here
With 17 matches remaining in this season’s Premier League, the race to the title currently involves just two teams, one of which has around twice the chance of the other of ending the season as 2014/2015 Premier League champions. Five more clubs have a realistic chance of a top-4 spot whilst eight teams are currently involved in the relegation battle. This leaves just five – West Ham, Swansea City, Stoke City, Newcastle United and Everton – without much left to play for.
ANALYSE THIS: Euro Club Index – No Premier League team in top-5
FOOTBALL – Italian champions Juventus have climbed to fifth place, their best position in the Euro Club Index since its inception, after wins against Malmö and AC Milan over the last week. However, the big news is that there is no Premier League club in the top-5 for the first time since the Euro Club Index began in 2007. During much of the first couple of years of the Euro Club Index’s existence, there were four clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United – in the top-5 but that number gradually declined from November 2009 onwards, the last time that a quartet of Premier League clubs occupied four of the top five places.
ANALYSE THIS: Euro Club Index – FC Barcelona back on top
FOOTBALL – The Madrid derby took all of the attention at the weekend with two of the top four Euro Club Index teams playing against one another but it is the other La Liga giants, FC Barcelona, who took advantage of the result in that match and returned to top spot in the ranking of Europe’s top flight clubs.
ANALYSE THIS: The Premier League battles laid bare
FOOTBALL – As a companion piece to the “Race to 38/68/87” piece which blogger James Grayson published on the Premier League yesterday, we have looked at the current Euro Club Index assessment of the competition.
The title race
As we touched on in the more extensive piece on the title race published yesterday, Manchester United have around a 93% chance of becoming this season’s champions, Manchester City have about a 6% chance and Chelsea a 0.6% chance. Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Everton all have a non-zero chance of ending the season as champions although the latter pair’s probability is so small that it has been rounded down to 0 in the table following later in this article. The remaining 14 Premier League clubs have no chance of becoming the 2012/2013 champions of England.
The latest Euro Club Index projection suggest that Manchester United will get 89 points this season but the current forecast suggests that they could still win the title with significantly fewer points than this.
The battle to get into the Champions League
Manchester United are certain of a top four place and qualification for next season’s Champions League but there are eight other clubs who still have a chance of ending the season in the Premier League’s top four according to the Euro Club Index forecast.
Manchester City are all but in next season’s Champions League with only a 1.7% chance of them not making it at present. Chelsea have an 80.7% chance of joining the two Manchester clubs in the top four at the end of the season but it is the battle for fourth position that is most fascinating.
Tottenham Hotspur are marginal favourites to take that fourth place with a 43.2% chance of ending the 2012/2013 season by qualifying for the Champions League. However, their North London rivals Arsenal are only just behind with a 40% chance so it should be nip and tuck between these two over the next few months.
Everton are the other club with a reasonable shot at a Champions League place and would be expected to claim that place about once in every four seasons from their current position given their playing strength and remaining schedule. Liverpool, West Bromwich Albion and Stoke City cannot be completely ruled out of a top four position but their chances are somewhat more remote.
Currently, the Euro Club Index projection assesses that 67 points will be enough to make the top four. We will revisit this as the season progresses to see whether it changes.
The battle to avoid relegation
Despite their recent upturn in form and win at Stamford Bridge, Queens Park Rangers are still the favourites for relegation with the Euro Club Index and would be expected to finish bottom of the table in more than one out of every two seasons given their current record. Their chance of relegation is currently 93%, the same as Manchester United’s chance of winning the title.
Two of last season’s promoted clubs, Reading and Southampton, are the next most likely teams to go down with the Euro Club Index’s current projection giving them 78.7% and 55.3% chance of relegation respectively. There are, however, seven other clubs who are not yet safe as illustrated in the table above.
The Euro Club Index predicts Wigan to get 37 points at the moment and therefore the race to escape relegation has that total as a benchmark with 17 matches remaining.
Finally, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed that there is one club not mentioned in either the battle for the top four or as part of the relegation picture. That club is Swansea City but the Swans do, of course, have a shot at the Europa League. We will look at that race when it becomes clearer whether one of the Europa League places will go to the League Cup winners or not. Swansea can, of course, book a place in next season’s Europa League via that competition as they already have one foot in the final after their 2-0 win at Chelsea earlier this week.
REVIEW: Villa first away side to score 3 goals at Anfield in over 3 years
FOOTBALL – On Saturday, Liverpool went down 3-1 at home to Aston Villa. This was the first time an away side scored three goals at Anfield in over three years – since Villa also won 3-1 in August 2009.
> This was the second time in PL history Liverpool had been 3-0 down in a PL home match – it also happened in the 3-3 draw against Manchester United in Jan 1994.
> This was the 8th time in PL history Liverpool had been two goals behind in a PL match at Anfield at half time. The last came v Blackpool in October 2010 which they eventually lost 2-1.
> Liverpool have failed to win a single PL match at Anfield in 2012 after falling behind. Their last comeback win at home was 3-1 against Newcastle on December 30, 2011.
> Liverpool have failed to win after conceding the opening goal on all seven occasions this season – three draws, four defeats.
PREVIEW: Premier League Opening Day stats
FOOTBALL – The Premier League starts on Saturday with six match-ups at 3pm local time. This is the 21st season of the Premier League and seven clubs have been members since its inception – Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur. Click read more for Opening Day stats.
- The all-time top scorer on the opening day of a PL season is Alan Shearer with eight goals.
- Frank Lampard is the highest active PL goalscorer in the opening fixtures of the season with six goals.
- Chelsea have scored 41 goals in opening day fixtures – more than any other club.
- The most goals scored on the opening matchround of a PL season is 36 goals in 2003. The fewest were 18 goals in 1998.
- There have been seven hat tricks previously scored in opening fixtures.
- The biggest victory / defeat on the opening matchround of the season was Chelsea’s 6-0 home win against West Brom in 2010.
- The biggest away wins / home defeats were Liverpool’s 6-1 win at Crystal Palace (1994), Bolton’s 5-0 win at Leicester City (2001) and Arsenal’s 6-1 win at Everton (2009).
- The biggest win by a promoted club on the opening day was Bolton’s 5-0 win at Leicester City in 2001. The largest defeat was West Brom’s 6-0 at Chelsea in 2010.
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