PEC Zwolle are top of the Eredivisie after six matches with Heerenveen a surprise third and Feyenoord still languishing in the bottom three. Are these teams really performing above, or in the case of Feyenoord below, expectations though? Head of Analysis @simongleave had a look at the numbers.
PEC Zwolle lead the Eredivisie after six matches and are clearly performing above expectations currently but by how much? There are three methods which we can use to take a look at this question; the first is something we used last season; simply compare the results this season with the exact same matches last term. We called this the ISG coefficient. The other two methods are similar to one another; using the percentage chance of each result from the Euro Club Index or from the bookmakers. In the case of the latter, the odds have to be adjusted so that they add to 100%.
PEC Zwolle’s 13 points from 18 is unsurprisingly regarded as a major overperformance according to these three methods. The club have between five and seven points more than expected at this stage but a note of caution; it is still early in the season and this can change quickly with a poor run of results.
The methods generally agree with one another in terms of whether a team is over or under performing. There is one exception – FC Utrecht – who incredibly took maximum points last season from the six fixtures they have played to date in 2013/2014. Compared to last season’s results, FC Utrecht are therefore the biggest underperformers. The bookmakers’ odds however assess Utrecht as overperformers with a point more than expected at this stage.
Last season’s top three of Ajax, Feyenoord and PSV have all taken three points fewer from their six fixtures to date than they did last term. All three are also underperforming in comparison to the Euro Club Index or bookmakers’ odds. Perhaps the final points required to win the title will be down on last year’s?
Finally Heerenveen, who could reasonably have expected to be in mid-table at this stage but actually find themselves in third position. Marco van Basten’s team are overperforming on all three measures but will need to continue in this vein to challenge the bigger clubs. Heerenveen finished 27 points behind the top three last term and it seems unlikely that they can make up this sort of gap to challenge. The club’s forthcoming fixtures are not overly challenging though and it will be interesting to return for another look at Van Basten’s club after another six matches have been completed.
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